Saber-Whaaaattt?

Sabermetrics kids. Learn the term.  I’m going to start doing a daily traditional statistic or award (i.e. ERA, BA, MVP, HOF…etc.) and breakdown why it is useless or flawed and probably throw in a stat or two one can use to replace these old fashioned ones. Education kids, thats what im here for. For now though I wanted my readers to know my views on the Sabermetrics, what I like about it and what I don’t.

Let’s start with the basics. Please people do not, let me digress, DO NOT confuse Sabermetrics and Moneyball.  Moneyball was a spectacular book by Billy Beane Michael Lewis (oopsie i pulled a Joe Morgan) that outlined Billy Beane and his use of sabermetrics to find flaws in our evaluations of players and find bargains with a small budget club.  THIS IS NOT SABERMETRICS. That is moneyball. Sabermetrics is simply the statistics Billy used to find the flaws in our ratings of players.  Sabermetrics involve all these new fangled stats such as VORP, WHIP and my favorite (if you haven’t figured it out yet) WAR.

Sabermetrics are great.  It is a common misconception that all it preaches is OBP OBP OBP. This is not true although getting on base does get you one less out away from losing the game.  Sabermetrics shows us that the key to winning games is not getting outs. Pretty simple right? Every out a player makes, puts the team 1/27 closer to losing the game.  The goal of baseball is to win, therefore the player’s that make the least outs (Getting on base/ have a high OBP) are better players.  I don’t care how you get on base. Walk, hit, HBP, bloop, blow the ump, whatever.  It doesn’t matter to me but the bottom line is that certain players have knack for getting on base throughout their career (i.e. Youk- The Greek Bearded Adonis God of Walks)  This is a most basic concept of Sabermetrics as I recently explained and it is VERY simple, and that’s why I like it.

Now what don’t I like about it? Well people often point out that it doesn’t work in the playoffs. (Billy Beane’s teams never seem to get passed the ALDS). That is true. But once again, that’s moneyball not Sabermetrics.  Have I gotten across that the two are not the same yet? No? Well quit reading because youre hopeless and while youre at it do us all a favor and stop watching baseball too.  Need I even point out that teams of the modern era that prescribe to Sabermetric principles have won the world series multiple times? Most famously Theo Epstein and the Sox, twice in the past 8 years.  I think a combination of Sabermetrics and a medium budget are needed to win.  A Hybrid Moneyball if you will.

That being said, Im going to cut this post short because I found myself ranting in my head about all the things I could say in this post but unfortunately I’m trying to keep posts short because I know you hooligans cant stay interested more than a half page. So until my daily stat updates start tomorrow, I will spare you guys.

By the way Sox-Yankees tonight will be a gold mine for idiotic statements by announcers.  Also a blog is coming later where I break down ESPN’s midseason awards. And yes, they are horrendously bad.

As always kids, Stay Supple

Larry the Bobcat Jeffries

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Dave Schoenfield, You Sir Are an Idiot

In homage to throwback FJM i will write this article in standard FJM fashion, writing what the article says, and breaking down each miserable statement.

 

ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield argues why Harper is an All Star despite him being elected based off of Mike Stanton’s injury.

Bryce Harper an All Star? Absolutely!

Yes please do try and justify this one, you jamoke.

What’s the news? That Bryce Harper is an All-Star after all. Sure, he may have taken the back entrance to make it into the All-Star Game.

Well you just proved your own point wrong by saying he “may have taken the back entrance..” Wait a second, there has to be a gay joke in there somewhere right?

It might seem premature. Harper is hitting .283 AVG/.355 OBP/.475 SLG, with eight steals and eight homers. That’s good, but is that an All-Star? I’ll argue that it is. 

Premature it is my fine sir. .283 average? This tells me nothing, I have no interest in BA. .355 OBP? okay thats solid. .475 SLG? Nothing to write mom home about.  8 steals is standard and 8 bombs is really average.  Im not sure how he can argue that these are All Star Numbers given that another rookie in Will Middlebrooks has better numbers in far less plate appearances (see my previous post) let alone the rest of the AL.

If you’re hitched to the notion of absolute, immutable standards it might seem contradictory that the roster’s made up of newly minted big leaguers at the same time that it’s honoring Chipper Jones in what has already been an injury-shortened final season for the future Hall of Famer. But that’s the All-Star Game in a nutshell: There is no absolute standard of who is and who isn’t an All-Star.

Uhhhhhhh. Hold on. Let’s see. You want the All Star game rosters to be made up of Old guys who got pity votes, and Young Bucks who aren’t really All Stars but are young and fun and the crowd loves them? So fuck Jose Bautista and his gazillion home runs. He’s 31, no one wants to see a guy in the middle/end prime of his career! Maybe if he was 5 years older! Yeah this makes tons of sense Dave.

Of yeah and there should be a standard of who’s an All Star. How about the guys with the best numbers..you Jabroni.

After all, Harper’s now the youngest position player to make it to the All-Star Game. Who did Harper, who turns 20 in October, take the honor from? That would be Twins catcher Butch Wynegar, in 1976, four months past his 20th birthday. Wynegar wasn’t an injury replacement or the token Twin (Rod Carew won the fan ballot at first base), and after hitting .294/.402/.426 at the break as a rookie, you can be generous and accept that Wynegar had earned an All-Star look as the third catcher behind Thurman Munson and Carlton Fisk. 

Maybe that’s a warning to Harper, because Wynegar’s career was a bit of letdown from there. If you actually remember Wynegar, you’re probably a Twins fan who had a long wait until 1987 ahead of you, or a Yankees fan who endured the dark days of the Boss-led ’80s. Either way, hats off to you for enduring. 

Wynegar had a pretty nasty .402 OBP a 3.8 WAR so he was actually pretty damn good in 1976. Also: Wynegar was a 2nd round pick.  Harper was the 1st pick overall.  I don’t think Bryce needs a warning from you, or to look to Butch Wynegar (how random, right?) as even a remote comparison of how he can turn out.  Besides the fact that Harper is a CF/ OF and has the arm of a cannon and the bat speed of a God… which Wynegar and his 10 HR career best clearly did not possess.

It’s also newsworthy that we’ve got a record five rookies in the All-Star Game, as Harper joinsWade Miley, Mike Trout, Yu Darvish and Oakland’s token, Ryan Cook, in Kansas City. Does that diminish the game any? Absolutely not. On some basic level it’s fun to see fresh faces. Is it unjust that Darvish is in and Jake Peavy is out? Of course it is. 

Im not sure why it’s “Oakland’s token” because if he plays that card then he’s have to say “Boston’s token, Big Papi”.  But I have to agree with that last sentence, Yu Darvish is not having a better year than Peavs. This is unjust!

That, in a nutshell, is why it’s worth throwing a parade right now this instant, now that Harper is going to be in the All-Star Game.

Im sorry what? Now we’re throwing parad’s for the game just because one NL rookie who doesn’t deserve to be there but is still highly entertaining to watch is going? That makes no sense.  No parades for the ASG. Just no.

Dave Schoenfield should stop writing, and he should have done it yesterday.

-Bobcat


Let’s Talk About Mike Trout/ Hypothetical 20 Year Contract

Mike Trout is a 20 year old phenom currently playing for the Angels.  If you do not know him, immediately go and look him up because this kid is the future of the league.  Yes, I think he will be better than Bryce Harper although at this point it looks like they both will have pretty unbelievable careers.

Trout 2012

254 AB’s, 11 HR, 39 RsBI, 19.9 K%, 8.7 BB%, 4.7 WAR and finally a .398 BABIP

Let’s look at Harper

244 AB’s, 8 HR, 25 RsBI, 19.0 K%, 9.0 BB%, 1.7 WAR and a .330 BABIP

 

So at first glance it’s pretty obvious that Trout is having a more tremendous year.  I expect BOTH of these guys to regress a little bit, especially Trout, because sporting a .398 BABIP means that he is getting pretty lucky.

 

I recently saw an article where a writer was arguing that the angels should sign Trout to a 20 year deal and try and get him for a discount price.  First of all this is absurd. Second of all this is completely absurd. I don’t care if you can get him for 20 years 200 million right now because the chance of him being productive and worth $10 million when he’s 40 years old is slim, not to mention it would trap the Angels in ANOTHER huge contract like Pujols and even worse, Vernon Wells (remember him anybody? yeah he’s fallen off the face of the Earth because he has a huge contract and sucks at baseball).  This is all barring that Trout even can play 20 years in the bigs, which is a HUGE gamble supposing that.  Maybe in 5 years he develops a sore rotator cuff from the stress of gunning runners down from CF.  That sore cuff becomes chronic. Now you’ve got a chronically injured CF on the books for another 15 years. (Similiar to Rick DiPietro’s situation with the Islander’s for any hockey fans. And don’t even get me started on Crosby’s new deal. That was borderline mental)  A number of other situations could emerge that make a 20 year deal a horrible, horrible idea.

 

Either way it’s obvious Trout is the real deal, not a 20 year contract real deal, but somewhere in a few years he will definitely be making more money than should be constitutional for playing a game.  

 

Oh just for fun, here’s my main dude Will Middlebrooks year so far

171 AB’s, 10 HR, 37 RsBI, 23.8 K%, 4.8 BB%, 1.0 WAR

He’s obviously right up there with those guys, just up the BB% and lower the K% and he’s going to be unbelievable.

 

 

As always kids, just some sunday morning food for though

 

LBJ

(no not the piece of shit LBJ from South Beach. The cool one who lives in Boston; This guy)